Presidential politics in Kansas took a dramatic change of course on Friday with the departure of native son Senator Sam Brownback from the presidential race. A Brownback victory in the February 9th Kansas GOP Caucus was by no means a lock, but he would have been the odds on favorite. His departure means a lot for Kansas and for Brownback.
The Kansas Caucus is now open for all the other Republican candidates vying for the Kansas delegates. Because of a desire not to offend diehard Brownback supporters other candidates have generally steered clear of Kansas. But now with and field clear and delegates up for grabs, Kansas Republicans can expect a hard fought race between Presidential Candidates before the Caucus. Campaigns will soon be stepping up their organizational efforts and getting ready to actively engage Kansas Republicans.
Brownback has not yet endorsed any other the other Presidential candidates but is expected to endorse within the next few weeks. It doesn't seem likely that he would give his endorsement to Mike Huckabee after his stunning, come from behind defeat of Brownback in the Iowa straw poll. Senator Fred Thompson appears to be a possible choice if Brownback wants to endorse a fellow conservative, but Brownback will want to talk with all the candidates before making a decision.
Brownback's departure has fueled speculation that he will run for Kansas governor in 2010. There is a lot of time before the 2010 primary and no clear frontrunners this early in the race, but Brownback is in a good position if he want's to make a move. It's possible his unpopular stance on illegal immigration which cost him Grassroots support in his presidential bid will be long forgotten by Kansas voters in 2010. All the other GOP candidates should remember that Brownback has consistently done well in Kansas and the level of committment from "Brownbackers" should not be underestimated.
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I agree with Senator Brownback on many issues including being pro-life. However, it appeared in the campaign that this was his only issue as far as trying to qualify himself as a conservative. In debate it all seemed to circle back toward abortion issue.
If he wanted to gain support he needed to broaden his appeal and express positions on taxes, economic development, national debt, gun rights, illegal immigration, homeland security, health care, etc. (single issues will only carry a candidate so far).
This post could only have been written by Christian Morgan or his friends. There is absolutely no buzz around the Kansas Caucus; it's pretty much a non-event as the big primaries will sort out the field. If Kansas wants to be a player nationally we need to have a strategically placed primary on one of the "super" dates.
Brownback essentially moved to Iowa and has not represented Kansas in the Senate for years. He will be a very flawed candidate if he runs for governor. No one will believe that he won't eventually run for Pres. or another term in the Senate. He is too conservative for independent voters and he is the one Republican that could actually lose to Parkinson (ala Morrison over Kline). Any other potential Republican, except a hard core conservative like Kline would be favored. Even Tihart is cozying up a bit to mods just in case.
If Brownback wants to be Gov, be better put his nose to the grindstone and do some work in the senate. Missing 35 % of the votes this year will come back to haunt him. I doubt that he could be any of the Rep front runners for Gov at this point.
we will see if there is any interest in the gop caucuses.
in one week we find out how little interest there really is with how few counties/caucuses there actually will be.
this will be the final nail in kobach's coffin.
when he has 4 caucus locations in 105 counties it will show how bad things really are.
Brownback essentially moved to Iowa and has not represented Kansas in the Senate for years.
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Interesting because I see Senator Brownback in Topeka almost every weekend.
Sam Brownback will not run for Governor. The man wants to talk big conceptual issues. These days, he's more interested in third world and global development matters than domestic policy. Running for Governor means talking about highways, and school finance, and SRS budgets, etc. Sam won't find this appealing. Also, his cultural war following won't bankroll a statehouse race. It's simply not a good platform for an ideological agenda.
Sam will also find that the KS GOP won't welcome him with open arms. Thornburgh and Schmidt will probably run. Sam will know that if he wins nomination, moderate will defect to support Parkinson in general. Also, the KS conservatives are a picky bunch. They've been upset at Sam over the years. They might even throw another challenger at him.
I predict that Sam will end up with a high-profile role with a religious or humanitarian organization.
I think Parkinson is kinda cooking his goose with the mods when he says he voted wrong when he was in the Senate.
Do Mods really like Unions like Parkinson does?
That's the whole point here. Almost any reasonable Republican would be favored over Parkinson. The only way we lose to him is to nominate a real conservative like Kline or Brownback. Any somewhat right of center Republican rides voter registration and reasonable independent vote split to easy victory.
"somewhat right of center" = Jim Barnett.
Almost! Jim probably is right of center but he put Wagle on his ticket, one of the most polarizing right-wingers around, ran to the right and ignored the large bloc of Republican votes in Johnson County. I should have added competent right of center candidate.
You have to be kidding me to think that Brownback would not be a good candidate.
Mods have voted for him in the past.
Remember the centrist Jill Docking? She got her ass kicked by Brownback.
Put away your anti-conservative bias.
A militant mod won't win without the conservative base.
"Militant mod won't win without the conservative base." First of all, mods are not militant by definition; they are moderate! Secondly, Dems have figured this out; don't understand why conservatives haven't. Conservatives will always vote Republican regardless; mods will vote for a Dem if the Republican is too right wing. Social single issue conservatives are lost causes but pragmatic conservatives should work with mods to find candidates both can agree on and go for it. Brownback doesn't fit that mold; he is too polarizing and would lose in general election. Dems in Kansas are pretty centrist; they are not left wingers like national party. That's why they are winning statewide races. Kansas has Dem governor and two of 4 Dem congressmen. Hello!
Problem is you need strong party leadership and we are stuck with Kobach who could care less about the party and only cares about his personal ambition and getting himself publicity.
Don't use Jill Docking as an example! That was 1996. First of all, Brownback was prochoice until 1994. In the 1996 election, Brownback was still mainstream methodist. His conversion to wacky evangelicalism and then to even wackier Opus Die catholicism was years away. Brownback had not yet embraced social conservatisim, so most people (myself included) generally regarded Brownback as a moderate right-of-center candidate. It's bad to use the Jill Docking race as an example. If I could do that race over again, I'd vote for Jill Docking.
If Brownback runs for Governor, he'll lose the general election to Mark Parkinson. Brownback has moved too far to the right. There's no way that moderates will ever vote for somebody so conservative.
Remember: Kansas has NEVER elected a prolife GOP governor. (Note, the Democrats have elected several). This is because KS is basically a centrist state. Sure, the conservatives can gain control of the state party and slip in somebody like Kline every so often. But, the moderates will never support a right-wind lunatic Republican if the Democrats provide a decent centrist alternative. This is the fundamental dynamic of KS politics that Sebelius, Parkinson, Morrison and Moore understand ... but the GOP doesn't seem to get at all.
The only way prolife Republicans can get elected is if the Democrats fail to find a strong candidate.
Against a no-name Democrat, the Republicans win due to simple registration advantage. This is how conservatives get elected.
However, whenever the Democrats get their act together (which isn't very often), the Democrats can always beat a conservative.
Prolifers have been successful in KS federal races over past few decades. Conservatives have been better at winning congressional seats than statewide offices. That's because the national conservative special interest groups have resourcs available for congressional campaigns. If you look at finance reports for conservatives like Brownback or Tiahrt, you'll see that they get 75%+ of their money from out-of-state.
The only conservative Republicans that have ever been elected to state statewide office are Kline and Shallenburger. These guys only lasted one term each. All other prolifers that have served in statewide office have been Democrats.
So, while the media likes to talk about how conservative KS is ... there's no real record of success for conservative Republicans. The conservatives have only managed to elect Kline and Shallenburger ... and both those careers ended badly. And, the prolife Republicans have never once been able to elect a Governor.
i'd just like to add the reason the other presidential candidates have been ignoring Kansas wasn't out of deference to Sammy- it was because there just aren't enough potential votes/delegates in Kansas to warrant spending in time or money. Same goes for the Democrats (though Obama is opening an office in Lawrence)
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