There is a lot of good news coming from the 3rd District this week. The President was across the state line, as were a number of '08 Presidential candidates, and the biggest news, Kansas Senator Nick Jordan has announced his candidacy for the U.S. House of Representatives.
Based on the voter registration, it seems like a no-brainer that the 3rd District would break Republican, but that has not been the case. Dennis Moore won by 31 percentage points in 2006. This week it is clear that Dennis Moore is in for the fight of his political life.
Insider has not heard from Thomas E. Sherer, but so far it appears that Nick Jordan will avoid an ugly and costly primary battles that have dogged Republican candidates in the past. Making the opportunity even better is Dennis Moore's apparent inability to be the independent centrist he claimed to be under a Republican Majority.
Jordan has represented the 10th Kansas Senate district since he was appointed in 1995 and has developed a solid reputation as a social conservative. But as someone who is willing to work, especially on economic issues, with anyone. His Kansas Taxpayers Network rating is 66.5%, which is 10th out of 30 Republicans in the Senate and just between Senators Karin Brownlee and Les Donovan.
The pieces seem to be falling in place as Nick Jordan gears up for 2008 but there are two areas of concern:
1) Money
Dennis Moore has a bunch. By filing early, and avoiding a strong primary challenge, Jordan can easily raise enough to mount a solid and credible campaign. The question is how much will the DNC pump into North East Kansas to keep Moore in office and voting along with the Nancies.
A tough race in the 2nd District could hurt Jordan's ability to raise money if a Republican primary is pulling money in from around the state.
2) Jordan's voting record in the Senate.
Jordan has a solidly pro-life voting record, and has also worked with more moderate Republicans on the Commerce and Economic Development committees. His voting record up to this point will not present any major hurdles. Now that he has announced, expect Sebelius and Anthony Hensley to try to get legislation up for votes just for the purpose of creating TV ads and mailings.
Much of Nick Jordan's success in November 2008 will be determined by the ability of Senate Leadership to protect him from votes that will come out of the Democrat spin cycle completely twisted and misrepresented.
Nancy Boyda remains the most beatable Democrat in the state, but Nick Jordan has a golden opportunity that should not be overlooked.
-KGI
17 comments:
"This week it is clear that Dennis Moore is in for the fight of his political life."
HAHAHAHA! Do you honestly think more won by 31% points because there was a GOP primary.
He beat Snowbarger, an incumbent, who had a free pass to the nomination and he'll beat jordan.
I wouldn't be so sure. Nick Jordan is probably the last person Moore wanted to run against. Dennis is getting tired of living the double life-saying one thing back in the district, doing another thing back in DC. Someone like Nick Jordan is going to push him and my guess is Dennis has gotten a little too comfortable. Watch for some fireworks in this race.
We know in politics that anything could happen...Boyda's win against an incumbent who had won many terms before seemed to come out of nowhere...don't count Jordan out...2008 could be the year that we see a huge change in the 3rd District.
Where does Jordan stand on war?
WooHoo! a post about political issues, not airing gop in fighting! awesome!
Jordan's position on the war will determine his viability as a candidate. Nobody in the district still supports the war. Moore voted with the Republicans on the war. Jordan needs to come out strongly in opposition to Iraq.
is that your strategy? Compare Jordan to Boyda?
The point is that the people who are happy with the war can vote for Moore. The people who oppose the war have nobody to support.
People don't like the war, but they also don't want us to pull out.
The 2008 election is still about terrorism and homeland security. Dems are still very weak on those issues.
Nick Jordan is seriously short on biography. Taff was a fighter pilot, Ahner was West Point, Kobach was Harvard/Yale/Oxford. Nick Jordan is a college dropout who runs a paint-your-own pottery store. He doesn't have a chance.
Classic "insider" post. Senate votes this next session will have almost no impact on the race. Jordan has to get the majority of Republicans behind him to have a chance. So far his record on this is abysmal. No attempts to reach out; no mods in his campaign; very little activity, etc. You have to work very hard and very smart to beat Moore. Jordan is a college dropout who has never been known as a hard worker. I'd love to see GOP retake this seat but I'm afraid that Nick looks good but may be an empty suit. It's one thing to go to Washington and have them whisper nice things in your ear; it's another to get on the ground here, call lots of people everyday for money and support, show up at every event, reach out to all elected Republicans, etc. That's tough grunt work - does Jordan have it in him?
Agreed. Jordan needs to put in 18 hour days for the next 15 months if he wants to win. Going back to Topeka for another session would be huge waste of time. If Jordan is serious, he'll resign from Senate ASAP. It's nothing but a distraction.
Jordan needs to raise $8k per day between now and the election. That's a full time job just working the phones and dialing for dollars.
I like Jordan, but I won't contribute. I just don't see him doing what it's going to take. He's a great guy and a strong state senator. But, he'll never defeat Moore.
Jordan will have a primary challenger. There's no way that the mods will allow him to steal the nomination unopposed.
Jordan's biggest problems will be his positions on school finance and stem cells. Johnson County will never elect a rightwing radical. Jordan needs to distance himself from the conservative elements of GOP. He needs to show that he's in line with mainstream Johnson County.
Jordan is probusiness and well liked in the community. He's popular with the Chamber of Commerce. I suspect he'll find support, he just needs to downplay his record as a conservative. If he can get people to believe that he's a moderate, he'll have a shot against Moore. I think he's the best candidate we've had since Taff.
The moderates support Dennis Moore. They'll never change their vote for a conservative. Especially when the GOP rightwing is in meltdown due to scandals and Iraq. Jordan won't do any better than Kobach.
The moderates don't really care about wedge issues like stem cell research. They're not going to dump a candidate because of a position on a single issue. However, Jordan will have to prove that he's NOT a conservative. The mods want somebody who is willing to stand up to the special interest groups. They want somebody independent. The best issue to use to distance himself from rest of the conservative GOP is Iraq. The mods will be happy with Jordan if he opposes the war.
Just wondering exactly when is Nick going to file his candidacy for the 3rd Congressional race? Maybe he is not certain. Or maybe he is still trying to figure out what a congressman does? I am just wondering here. Regardless, welcome to the campaign Nick.
Thomas E. Scherer, also a candidate since 2005.
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